The Muslim Brotherhood and the Jordanian Political System: A Study in the History of Political Relations and Interactions

Abstract

This study examines the evolution of the relationship between the Muslim Brotherhood and the Jordanian political system over the course of eight decades, from the group's founding in 1945 to 2025. It aims to analyse this relationship within the context of both regional and local political and social transformations, offering an interpretation of the nature of interactions between the two actors—whether during periods of alliance, tension, or rupture.

The study employs a historical methodology to trace developments across successive periods while also utilising the Political Opportunity Structure framework to analyse how the Brotherhood advanced or declined in accordance with the degree of political openness, the stability of elite alliances, and the availability of external support.

The study is divided into three main phases: the Alliance Phase (1945–1988), characterised by strategic cooperation and convergence between the Brotherhood and the regime; the Tension Phase (1988–2015), marked by growing discord due to internal political shifts and regional upheavals; and the Rupture Phase (2015–2025), culminating in the outlawing of the group and the criminalisation of affiliation with it amid heightened security and political tensions.

Findings reveal that the relationship between the Brotherhood and the Jordanian regime has been a complex and dynamic one, influenced by internal factors such as government policy and electoral processes and by external elements including regional transformations and global conflicts. While the Brotherhood has at times demonstrated a high degree of adaptability, it has also experienced sharp declines due to restrictive state policies, internal fragmentation, and shifting regional dynamics.

The study emphasises that a nuanced understanding of the Brotherhood–regime relationship requires an analytical approach that integrates historical analysis with the explanatory lens of political opportunity theory while also considering the legal, social, and security dimensions that have shaped the trajectory of this relationship.

This study holds particular significance for researchers and policymakers seeking to understand the evolving political landscape in Jordan and the region, as well as to anticipate the future of Islamic movements in light of both domestic and international developments.