China, Iran and Russia and Their Political Rivalry over Syrian Reconstruction

Walid Khalid Abudalbouh  

الملخص

With the West, the Gulf States and Turkey set to play a minimal role in the reconstruction of postwar Syria, whilst Russia, China and Iran are the three actors set to potentially be the major players in the rebuild. This grouping has drawn past descriptions ranging from an anti-West axis to a superficial marriage of convenience, dependent on short term interests and context. Accordingly, it is important to consider this grouping in the Syrian context, and deliberate how the Sino-Iranian-Russian leadership of the Syria reconstruction may unfold, as this has clear implications not just for the fate of postwar Syria, but also may be illustrative of future comparable instances of reconstruction or development as US global leadership on such matters declines and within such understanding the significance of research evolves. Given this, this paper will try to unpack such problems and complexities by addressing following key objective in terms of delineating the impending roles and interests of each of the three players. Accordingly, the research should be addressing the questions of: how these roles and interests may come into competition and tension with each other? and analyzing how aspects of these roles and interests may be mutually supportive and provide opportunities for collaboration? The paper hypothesizes that the nature and the outcomes of interests of these states are very much conditioned by the continuing pattern of influence and presence of these states and Russian one in particular. In order to finally seek to attain such objective, the paper will try to foresee the balancing of these areas of potential competition and collaboration alongside a consideration of the regional foreign policy mindsets of each player to attempt to forecast the trajectory of the joint China-Iran-Russia presence in postwar Syria. Through descriptive analytical approach, the paper concludes – which coincides with research hypothesis - with the position that, while each player has strong areas of competition with each other, Russia’s need for Chinese economic leadership and China’s need for Russia’s political and security leadership, combined with Beijing and Moscow having some conducive regional goals and policy mindsets, make China and Russia likely close partners through the reconstruction.  However, Iran, due to ongoing spoiler role and dogged pursuit of security interests in Syria that induce instability, make it a potentially inconvenient partner for China and Russia, meaning Tehran may be distanced by Beijing and Moscow.