The Demographic Reality of the World Population and Neo-Malthusianism

Abstract

This study aims to examine the extent to which the neo-Malthusian approach is objective in explaining global demographic transitions over the period 1750–2024 through a multilevel comparative analysis combining long-term temporal trend analysis, spatial comparison across regions and country groups by income level, and the use of standardized indicators to measure relationships between demographic variables (fertility, mortality, life expectancy) and resource pressure indicators (water, food, and emissions). The significance of the study lies in reassessing the assumed relationship between population growth and resource crises in light of historical and spatial data revealing sharp disparities between developed and developing countries.

The study reaches four main findings: First, global population growth has not followed an unlimited exponential path, but rather has reflected a demographic transition characterized by gradually declining fertility. Second, the highest levels of resource consumption and emissions are concentrated in high-income countries despite their slower population growth, weakening the linear relationship between population size and environmental pressure. Third, water and food stress in several developing countries is more closely linked to patterns of use and institutional inefficiency than to population size alone. Fourth, temporal and spatial variation in demographic transition undermines the validity of neo-Malthusian generalizations, indicating that development and consumption patterns are more decisive explanatory factors than population growth alone